New US policy & Pakistan

Obama used his UK visit to announce new US foreign policy. It will focus on east of Suez, which has been interpreted as China centric. UK will lead the war in Libya, and Palestine issue must be settled outside UN. Obama cherry picked while talking about “Arab Spring”. The use of words “slow and steady” and “patience and persistence” by Obama and Cameron show that Libya war is going to be long. However, Obama did not reject political solution to end Libya’s standoff which in fact is the spirit of 1973 UN Resolution. Cameron-Obama “burger diplomacy” has been termed as part 2 of Bush-Blair “poodle” relationship. The Joint National Security Board (NSB) of UK-US will not fly because UK has no public plans to challenge emerging states of Asia. NSB is only meant for day-to-day cooperation on Iran and global terror. Moreover, extradition treaty between both countries will not work because US is not honoring its end of the obligations.

Pakistan is at the center of America’s eastward shift to counter China’s influence in the region. Accordingly, Washington expects Islamabad to stand with America or return to Stone Age. There is a consensus in the world that after the death of Osama America’s post 9/11 security doctrine based on so-called war against terrorism (SWAT) has ended but Washington is adamant to continue using SWAT to protect its pre-9/11 “Absolute Security Doctrine”. Islamabad therefore has to review its post 9/11 Pak-US policy to protect Pakistan’s economic, energy and security interests and region’s stability. Even, UK does not share America’s “Counter China policy”. Cameron made UK’s position clear during Lancaster House press conference by saying that political dialogue is the way forward in Afghanistan.

In his book “Cables from Kabul”,Coper-Coles, former British Ambassador to Afghanistan has highlighted scorched earth policy by the US lead NATO forces in Afghanistan. American military leaders defended their tactics of raids and increase in violence against Taliban to bring them to agree to a deal on terms of Kabul and the west. It is a gross violation of UN Charter, which recognizes nation’s right of self-determination or the free choice of one’s own acts without external compulsion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination. The use of force is being met with vigorous indigenous retaliation and ending of illegal Afghan occupation by US led NATO forces.

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New US policy & Pakistan

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Thank you (Australian Commission in India, especially David Holly – Consul-General, and Tim Huggins.) Thank you also to my hosts at the Centre for Contemporary China Studies, Centre for Asia Studies, and the University of Madras.

I have been asked to speak about regional security, especially as it relates to India and Australia in the context of the Shangri-La Dialogue that was just held in Singapore two weeks ago. This is a wonderfully broad and important topic and I’ll try my best to do justice to it.

For those of you who might not know about the Dialogue, it is the annual meeting of Defence Ministers from almost 30 countries. Importantly, the Dialogue draws the Defence Ministers from all the major regional players – the US, India, Japan, Russia, the UK, Indonesia, Australia, and China. For the first time in the ten year history of the Summit, China sent a ministerial level official in Minister of National Defence, General Liang Guanglie (also a member of the Central Military Commission and a State Councilor.)

I was invited to attend as a member of the four-person non-governmental Australian delegation.

When your Minister of State for Defence M M Pallam Raju addressed the Dialogue, he spoke about military and especially naval modernization, the uneven spread of military and strategic transparency in the region, the possibility of an emerging Asian arms race, and the importance of freedom of navigation for all trading nations from the Gulf of Aden, through the Indian Ocean, past the Malacca Straits and through the South China Sea.

Minister Pallam Raju also spoke highly about regional multilateral initiatives such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus initiative, and of course the Shangri-La Dialogue. Showing that New Delhi is quickly learning how to speak ASEAN, phrases such as ‘consensual decision making’, ‘cooperation against common threats’, ‘shared security’ and ‘shared decision-making’ was used.

None of this would be any surprise to you. But not once did Minister of State for Defence Raju mention the word ‘China’ – despite the fact that Chinese military modernization and doctrine, Chinese in-transparency, and also its behavior in land and maritime disputes with India, Japan and in the South China Sea is the single collection of factors creating concern in the region.


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